Constellation strategy

◆ Constellation

Our recommended strategy, and the one we run ourselves. Polymarket keeps six correlated crypto markets open simultaneously: BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE and BNB. Inside a 5-minute round they travel together somewhere around 73 to 85% of the time.

The premise: buy the straggler. Every round, Constellation has all six markets in view. Once enough of them lean the same way (a consensus) but one of them still lags behind the rest, and that straggler is still priced close to a coin flip within the buy band, it buys the straggler. The wager is straightforward: the laggard closes the gap before the round is over.

Nothing to select, it covers all six. All six markets are always in scope. The asset picker the other strategies rely on does not carry over here, so there is nothing for you to choose. It does its best work when the group splits and abandons one coin. When all six move in perfect lockstep and no straggler exists, there is nothing to buy, and Constellation sits the round out instead of forcing a trade.

A handful of dials shape it, all covered below: how strict the agreement must be, how many of the six have to line up, and how far behind a coin has to fall before it qualifies.