Profit calculator
A calculator that shows its working
“What would this actually make me?” is the most common question we get, and the honest answer has always been “it depends on four numbers.” So we put the four numbers on a page. The profit calculator gives you the result for a day, a week and thirty days, after both fees, with the break-even win rate drawn in and the arithmetic written out underneath.
It runs entirely in your browser. No account, no wallet, nothing typed into it is sent anywhere.
Four sliders, and what each really means
- Stake per trade. Dollars into one round. The bot’s default first buy is $5.
- Trades per day. A day holds 288 five-minute rounds, but the bot only enters when its checks pass, and it skips the large majority of them. If you want a real number rather than a guess, the round replay counts how often it entered and how often it stood aside.
- Average entry price. What one share costs. A share pays $1 if your side wins and $0 if it loses, so buying at $0.50 turns a win into 2.00× the stake, while buying at $0.80 turns the same win into 1.25×. This input moves the result more than people expect.
- Win rate. The share of trades that win. This one is yours to set. Nobody can promise you a win rate, and the page deliberately does not suggest one.
Three lines, so you can check it by hand
A winning trade. You buy stake ÷ price shares and each one pays $1, so the
profit is stake ÷ price − stake. At $5 and $0.50 that is $10 back on $5 in: +$5.
A losing trade. The shares settle at $0 and the whole stake is gone: −stake.
There is no partial loss in a 5-minute round and no mid-round exit — the position runs to settlement either way.
Two different fees come off a trade, and the calculator applies both. The 5MTBot platform fee is $0.03 per winning trade, or $0.015 per trade on the flat plan, until 30 September 2026; from 1 October it is $0.065 and $0.04. There is a toggle for each schedule and the page picks the right one by today’s date — the reasoning behind the change is in the fee update.
The second fee is Polymarket’s own taker fee on 5-minute crypto markets:
7% × price × (1 − price) per share bought. It peaks at a price of $0.50, where it works out
at roughly 3.5% of your stake — considerably more than the platform fee, and the single largest cost in the model. It
shrinks as the price moves toward either end. You can switch it off to see the difference, but leaving it on is the
realistic setting.
The two lines that matter more than the headline figure
The break-even win rate sits under the result and updates as you move the sliders. It is
−loss ÷ (win − loss), using the net figures after fees, and it answers the only question that
decides whether a setup is viable: how often do I have to be right for this to make money at all? Because a higher entry
price shrinks the win while leaving the loss at the full stake, break-even climbs steeply as you buy later into a round.
That is the trade-off between a cheap entry and a confident one, in one number.
The 9-in-10 range on the 30-day figure is there because an average is not an outcome. Two months at the same win rate can look very different, and the range shows where nine of every ten of them land. If the bottom of that range is somewhere you could not sit through, the settings are too big regardless of what the middle says.
The chart underneath sweeps the win rate across its whole span so you can see how fast the 30-day result crosses zero.
What the model does not know
- It assumes every trade enters at the same price. Real rounds vary.
- It assumes wins and losses arrive independently of one another.
- It does not model averaging down. DCA changes both your average entry price and the money at risk in a round, and it pushes the real result away from the straight-line version here.
- It is a model of arithmetic, not a forecast of results. Put in a win rate you have reason to believe, not one you would like.
5MTBot is independent software for Polymarket and is not affiliated with it. Prediction markets carry real risk. Nothing here is financial advice or a projection of your results.
Try it with your own numbers, then set the strategy that produces them.